The latest Canada-wide and Ontario official public health data shows little change over the past several weeks in our rates of new COVID infections. Overall, we appear to be enjoying the pandemic’s seasonal low, with the most recent values at their lowest of the pandemic to date.
The Canada-wide municipal wastewater COVID testing curve over the past eight weeks shows minor oscillation around an average value of 3.3, which is the lowest for the pandemic today and well than a third of last year at this time. That remains consistent with Ontario’s PCR COVID testing results which have reached a near-zero positivity rate. Likewise Ontario COVID hospitalization and ICU bed occupancy rates which are also approaching near zero.
The more independent health statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have yet to update their estimate of several weeks ago of only one in every 400 Ontarians having been infected and therefore infectious. I would expect the current number to now be even lower.
Public Health Canada’s most recent biweekly report on the relative “market share” of currently-circulating COVID variants is more than a little puzzling. Over the past couple of months, their estimates of the two Omicron families vying for dominance have been wildly jumping. Two weeks ago, the PQ family had nosed past the longer-dominant XFG family but, in their most recent estimate, XFG had conclusively jumped back to 67% of all new Canadian infections compared to PQ’s meagre 7%. I suspect that the unusually low number of new cases is playing having with their statistical modelling. Given that the viral strains in both families appear to be very similar in terms of symptom severity, the question is currently somewhat academic.