Contrary to last week’s view, the most recent official statistics on COVID-19 infections suggest that the seasonal decline is actually continuing, with the rate of new cases having fallen to record lows. For Ontario in particular, the previous one or two weeks’ data usually change modestly following the inclusion of tardy records. This time, that resulted in significant changes to the recent trend lines.
As you can see from this week’s composite chart, Canada-wide municipal wastewater COVID viral counts continued their steep decline, having now fallen to roughly half of the values reported last year at this time. The decline in Ontario PCR test positivity rates has steepened, now dropping slightly below last year’s. are roughly the same as where they were last year at this time. Ontario COVID hospitalization and ICU bed occupancy rates are likewise in steep decline, at levels comparable to last year’s.
The monthly report from the independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada is consistent with those trends. They now estimate of one in every 273 Ontarians being currently infected and therefore infectious. That is a huge improvement over last month’s one in 69.
Public Health Canada’s latest biweekly report on the relative “market shares” of currently-circulating COVID variants shows the vast majority of new Canadian COVID infections being due to two competing families of Omicron variants, XFG and the newer PQ. Once again, no single strain enjoys anywhere near the degree of dominance that had previously characterized this pandemic. The most prevalent strains this past week were PQ.2.8.1 at 14.6% and PQ.2.1.3 at 11.3%. However, of the 21 strains currently being tracked, 13 of them were from the XFG family and only 5 PQs. That gave XFG strains a 46% collective “market share” compared to PQ’s 28%. There is no real evidence of significant differences in symptom severity between those two viral families. Characteristic XFG (also known as “Stratus”) symptoms include a sore throat, congestion, and coughing while PQ typically emphasizes fever, cough, and fatigue.