I am unable to produce my usual, fairly comprehensive pandemic update this week because almost none of the official statistical sources upon which I base that analysis have been publishing over the Christmas break. That precludes my usual composite chart.
Instead, I’m posting the one graph for which some updated data is available, that of average COVID viral levels in municipal wastewater treatment plants across the country. Unfortunately, the most recent data only goes to December 14, which isn’t sufficiently recent to capture the expected Christmas family gathering and socializing surge in new infections. The data is also skewed by Ontario only providing test results from three Toronto-area sites, which is far from representative of the Province. For what it’s worth, national wastewater COVID viral counts were on the rise as of December 14, but at only half of last year’s levels.
The only other source which I can quote is the COVID infection risk estimates produce by the more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada. Their most recent estimate of the number of Ontarians being currently infected and therefore infectious has jumped to one in every 58 people, which is far more worrisome than the one per 184 which they had estimated several weeks ago. They too would have been hampered by the lack of recent government data, so I would take that with a grain of salt, but it’s enough to motivate me to wear my N95 mask when going to supermarkets and other crowded indoor public spaces. Hopefully, next week’s update should provide better guidance as to whether the expected holiday-season surge in new cases has actually materialized and how severe it might be.