This is another “off-week” report, necessarily shorter than last week’s given that many of the official sources from which I draw the pandemic-related data behind our graphs and analysis are publishing only biweekly. The graph of the various strains of COVID currently circulating in Canada is therefore unchanged, and won’t be updated until next week.
This week’s composite chart suggests that the pandemic is no longer following its previous northern hemisphere seasonal pattern of a sharp holiday-related spike in new COVID infections followed by a gradual decline to spring and summer annual lows. Ignoring the unusually brief and moderate holiday blip, what we have been seeing instead is a moderate but relatively steady worsening trend since which began around September and thus far shows no signs of diminishing.
Looking at the individual charts, Canada’s national municipal wastewater testing shows that COVID viral counts have been slowly but steadily rising since last year at this time. Actual Ontario PCR COVID test positivity rates among those still eligible for testing (mainly seniors and health care workers) began their current rise in early October. While rates are similar to those of a year ago, the significant difference is that they are now on an extended rising trend compared to last year’s falling rates. Ontario COVID hospitalization and ICU occupancy rates have been following that that very same pattern, strongly suggesting that something significant has changed in the pandemic’s dynamics. How long that pattern will continue and what its root causes might be are unknowable at this point.