With the official sources from which we obtain the latest COVID statistics now back to their normal cycle, we have an “on” week during which all of them report followed by an “off” week in which I’m limited in what can be said due to some of them not reporting. This past week was an “off” one.
Looking at the composite chart, it is now reasonable to assume that the seasonal surge in new COVID infections has passed and that the number will gradually decline over the coming months unless a new, much more infectious variant should appear. For Ontario, that is most clearly indicated in the COVID hospitalization and ICU graphs, which show a significant week-to-week decline following an early-January peak of roughly half the numbers of last year at the same time. Ontario PCR test positivity rates rose slightly but that could be attributed to the much-reduced number of seniors and health-care workers getting tested for flu-like symptoms which turned out to be due to one of the other circulating seasonal respiratory viruses. Canada-wide testing of COVID virus levels in municipal wastewater basically plateaued at a bit higher than a year ago.
The more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have not updated their estimate from last week that one in every 94 Ontarians is currented fighting a COVID infection and are therefore infectious. Likewise, we’ll have to wait until next week for Public Health Canada’s report on which variants are currently circulating in Canada.