This first weekly update for 2026 actually covers most of December given that Public Health Ontario and Public Health Canada largely downed tools over the holiday season, which left us all in the dark as to COVID exposure risks at precisely the time of year when that information would have been most useful for managing those risks.
Looking at the composite chart, the expected seasonal surge in new infections happened, but was generally less severe than in previous years. Canada-wide, municipal wastewater viral counts increased by roughly 25%. The Ontario picture based on PCR testing of the minority of our population still eligible for those tests (mainly symptomatic seniors and health care workers) is puzzling. The number of tests more than doubled in the period from mid-November to Christmas yet the positivity percentage remained relatively static at around 5%. My best guess for the explanation is that a general surge in upper-respiratory viral infections made a lot of people symptomatic, causing them to get tested, but the non-COVID majority essentially hid the rise in COVID cases. That hypothesis is supported by COVID hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy, which nearly quadrupled over that same period.
The more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have not reported over that same period. Hopefully, next week’s update will include their analysis.
Likewise, Public Heath Canada’s has still not reported since the holidays, which leaves us in the dark for another week as to changes in which COVID variants are currently on the rise.