The most recent published official data on COVID infections suggests that the unexpected rise in new COVID infections following a unusually small seasonal peak appears to have run its course, at least for Ontario.
As illustrated in this week’s composite chart, both Ontario PCR test positivity rates for seniors and seniors and health-care workers (who remain eligible for definitive testing) have essentially flattened, albeit at a significantly higher level than last year at this time. Ontario COVID hospitalization and ICU occupancy rates likewise stabilized at levels comparable to last year’s, the difference being that they were then in the midst of a sharp decline.
Despite the above, the more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have actually reduced their hazard index, albeit with Ontario above the national average. Their updated estimate of one in every 82 Ontarians being currently afflicted by a COVID infection and therefore infectious is, however, somewhat worse than their previous one-in-every-108.
The relative “market shares” of the unusually large number of COVID strains currently-circulating in Canada are largely unchanged from Public Health Canada’s previous biweekly report, but that’s because it covers almost the same time period. Throughout the pandemic, they had been using sophisticated statistical modelling to project current prevalence based on the most recent data. Now, however, they have switched to simply reporting actual numbers once all the returns from across Canada are in. That means that, going forward, what we’ll be seeing is what was happening roughly a month ago. The implication is that we’re no longer getting a heads-up on what this rapidly-changing pandemic is doing, which is unfortunate because it amounts to a step backwards in awareness.