While this week’s composite chart shows somewhat mixed statistical indicators, there are thus far no definitive signs of the expected holiday-season surge in new COVID infections having yet begun.
Ontario PCR COVID testing results indicate a surge in the number of tests performed but a modest decline in the positivity rate. My best guess as to why that might be is more of the portion of our population who are still eligible for those tests (primarily seniors and health-care workers) exhibiting flu-like symptoms, but most of those turning out to be seasonal non-COVID respiratory viruses. That said, COVID hospital admissions continue to track upwards, albeit at roughly half the rate we experienced last year at this time.
The more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have yet to update their COVID risk estimates from two weeks ago. For Ontario, their estimate remains one in 184 people being infected and therefore infectious.
The chart of currently-circulating COVID variants in our country, based on the biweekly report from Public Health Canada, shows that the dominant XFG family of Omicron accounted for nearly 73% of all new cases. While the original XFG strain faces stiff competition from its many progenies, it remains the single most prevalent strain at just over 20%. The previously-dominant NB.1.8.1 variant is continuing its surprisingly gradual decline and is now in 4th place with 7.5%, but has been outcompeted by its PQ.2.1 subvariant, which is rapidly gaining more “market share”.