This being the alternate week during which, of my major COVID statistical sources, only Public Health Ontario publishes, there is relatively little new to report. For Ontario, the percentage of PCR tests which confirmed new infections increased very slightly, leaving the positivity rate plateaued roughly halfway between the summer seasonal low and the late-September peak. While the pattern is similar to that of 2024, the actual number of infections is approximately half that of last year. As you can see from the composite chart, those Ontario trends parallel the national wastewater testing results.
Ontario COVID hospital admissions and ICU occupancy remain very low compared to previous years, suggesting that the currently-dominant XFG family of Omicron variants is less capable of evading the current average immunity levels of our population than in previous years. Given falling booster vaccination rates, that immunity is likely attributable to the high proportion of people who have had prior bouts of COVID.
According to a Google AI query, studies indicate that while a single, non-severe COVID-19 infection may not have a significant correlation with long-term longevity for the general population, multiple infections and severe cases increase the risk of long-term health complications and all-cause mortality, which can reduce life expectancy compared to those who have been consistently uninfected.
The more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have not updated their most recent estimate one in 139 Ontarians being currently infected and therefore infectious. More up-to-date information should be available next Saturday.