While it began considerably later than in previous years, the expected seasonal surge in new COVID infections is well under way. The Ontario PCR test positivity rate has been steeply rising through August and September, though it remains a little less than half of last year at this time. COVID hospitalizations have nearly doubled since early August, but again remain well under last year’s. ICU occupancy for more serious cases remains low.
The more independent COVID-19 Resources Canada has significantly increased its risk severity estimates, with Ontario slightly worse than the national average but Quebec unusually the lowest province. Their current estimate of one in every 73 Ontarians currently infected and therefore infectious is largely unchanged from two weeks ago.
Public Health Canada’s review of currently-circulating COVID variants reports that the new recombinant XFG strain has diversified into a rapidly expanding family which now constitutes seven of the eight most common strains, together accounting for more than 79% of all new Canadian infections. Their only significant remaining competitor is the previously dominant NB.1.8.1, which is down to just over 14%. The fall booster shot, which was formulated against NB.1.8.1, is reportedly effective against the XFG strains, particularly for preventing severe disease. It is expected to be available in pharmacies by mid-October but because the quantities ordered by provincial governments are uncertain, I for one will be booking my shot early.