While not yet definite, the statistics displayed in this week’s composite chart provide further evidence that the seasonal August and September surge in new Ontario COVID infections peaked in mid-September at roughly 60% of last year’s number and has since plateaued. COVID hospitalization rates have started to follow suit and I would expect ICU bed occupancy to shortly do the same.
The risk estimates by the more independent statisticians at COVID-19 Resources Canada have likewise moderated since their previous update two weeks ago. They now estimate that one in 63 Ontarians is currently infected and therefore infectious.
The latest Public Health Canada data on currently circulating COVID variants confirms the utter dominance of the new but rapidly diversifying XFG family of recombinant variants. For those who are unfamiliar with the term, recombination is the viral equivalent of sexual reproduction. While very rare, it occurs when two different variants infect the same cell at the same time, with each of the up-to-a-million viral particles released being a random shuffling of the parental genes. Such reshufflings are dangerous to our collective health in that, if one of those combinations is more effective that the currently-dominant strain in evading existing immunities, it will rapidly proliferate. We appear to have been lucky with XFG in that, while its sub-strains now account for roughly 90% of all new Canadian infections, its symptoms are no worse than its predecessors and this year’s booster shot remains effective.